Nobody said it would be easy, not even Nate Zimdars.

But heading into Tuesday’s election, Zimdars, running as a Democrat, faced an uphill battle. First, the 41st State Assembly District has long been a Republican stronghold (just ask Joan Ballweg), 

Second, in the Aug. 11 primary election this year Zimdars pulled in 3,098 votes. He was unopposed. His opponent on Tuesday, Republican Alex Dallman, did slightly better in August with 3,392 votes. But Dallman was competing against three other Republicans who gained another 3,494 votes. In other words, in August there were 6,886 votes cast for Republicans. 

Contrast this with Zimdars’ 3,392 votes and it is clear that the Republican vote total was roughly double that of the Democrat.

Of course, this was just a primary and primaries typically don’t produce high levels of voter turnout. In fact, since there were four candidates running on the Republican side, it could be said that the almost 7,000 Republican votes were there primarily because this was a contested primary.

But wait, let’s go back and look at the vote totals the last time there was a race in the 41st Assembly District, in 2018. In that race, Republican incumbent Joan Ballweg easily beat Democrat Frank Buress, 5,205 to 2,160 in Green Lake County. Ballweg also did well throughout the district as she topped Buress,15,257 (63%) to 8,984 (37%).

So what does all this mean? Simply put, the odds of Zimdars beating Dallman–at least based on past voting–are remote, not only in Green Lake County, but in the district as a whole. It is possible, if the Blue Wave materializes, that Zimdars will do well, but upsetting Dallman, who has worked as a staffer for 6th Congressional District Congressman Glenn Grothman, and who has served as the chair of the Green Lake Republican Party would be a stunning upset. 

One can hope, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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